By Kao Shih-ching / Journalist
The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, ä¸è¯ ç¶æ¿ ç ç©¶é¢) yesterday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year to 6.05%, which would be the highest level since 2011, as the exports and strong investments compensate for weak growth in private consumption. .
The agency had previously forecast the economy to grow 5.84% this year.
The latest forecast was slightly lower than the 6.09% growth forecast by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounts and Statistics (DGBAS).
The CIER forecast growth of 3.67% next year, which would mark the fourth consecutive increase of more than 3%. The forecast is lower than the expectations of National Development Council Minister Kung Ming-hsin (é¾æé«) of 4 percent growth next year.
“The main boost of the local economy [this year] comes from external factors, such as exports, but next year we expect internal factors, such as private consumption, to contribute as much as external factors, âsaid Peng Su-ling (å½ç´ ç²) researcher at CIER during a press conference in Taipei. “Private consumption is expected to rebound in 2022 after falling for two consecutive years.”
Private consumption fell 2.53% year-on-year last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to have grown only 0.07% this year, but is expected to recover next year with an annual gain of 5.02%, Peng said.
As for inflationary concerns, which have disrupted the retail sector globally, CIER predicts that the full-year consumer price index (CPI) growth will be 1.9% this year. year and would be slightly lower than 1.77% next year, Peng said.
The rise in inflation in Taiwan could be mainly attributed to higher prices for imported goods, such as food, fuel and other items, as inflation has increased around the world, CIER said. , adding that the appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar against the greenback had helped to partially absorb inflationary pressures. .
“The government should adopt deeper and more comprehensive measures to curb price increases,” CIER Chairman Chang Chuang-chang (å¼µ å³ ç« ) said at the press conference.
The exchange rate between the local currency and the greenback is expected to average 28.04 next year, up from 28.03 this year, CIER said.
Fixed investment and exports, the two main pillars of economic growth this year, are expected to increase by 14.54% and 26.3% year-on-year respectively, but are expected to slow next year due to a base high comparison, with annual earnings. slowing to 2.18% and 5.38% respectively, CIER said.
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